Brief analysis of the economic operation of the automobile industry in 2021
1. Overview of the overall operation
In 2021, the automobile industry will face the unfavorable factors such as the shortage of chips and the continued high price of raw materials. With the joint efforts of the whole industry, the production and sales of automobiles will show a steady and increasing development trend throughout the year, showing strong development resilience and development momentum.
From the perspective of annual development, automobile production and sales in 2021 will show a year-on-year increase, ending the three consecutive years of decline since 2018. Among them, new energy vehicles have become the biggest bright spot. The annual sales volume exceeded 3.5 million, and the market share increased to 13.4%, which further shows that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven; due to the recovery of the international market, the competitiveness of Chinese brands has improved Driven by other factors, my country's automobile exports have performed well. Since April, the historical record has been refreshed many times. For the first time, the annual export has exceeded 2 million vehicles, achieving a breakthrough that has been hovering around 1 million vehicles for many years. Driven by the improvement of the export market, the market share has exceeded 44%, which is close to the best level in history.
In 2022, my country will continue to do a solid job of "six stability" and "six guarantees", continue to improve people's livelihood, focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range. In this context, the demand for the automobile market will remain stable. With the shortage of chip supply at the supply side and the high price of raw materials, the problems will gradually improve in the new year. The annual production and sales performance is better than that of 2021.
2. Operation of the automobile industry in December 2021
l Steady growth in automobile production and sales
In 2021, the production and sales of automobiles will be 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, up 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, ending the three consecutive years of decline since 2018.
Judging from the annual car sales, in the first quarter, due to the low base in the same period, the automobile market showed rapid year-on-year growth, but in the second quarter the growth rate declined. The recovery was better than expected, ensuring a good development trend of steady growth throughout the year.
In December, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.907 million and 2.786 million respectively, a month-on-month increase of 12.5% and 10.5% respectively. The production volume increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 1.6% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of output turned from negative to positive, and the decline in sales narrowed by 7.5 percentage points. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales increased by 8.2% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively, of which the production growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with November, and the sales growth rate increased by 2.2 percentage points compared with November.
l The passenger car market continues to maintain a scale of more than 20 million vehicles
In 2021, the production and sales of passenger vehicles will be 21.408 million and 21.482 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and 6.5% respectively, an increase of 3.7 and 2.7 percentage points higher than the industry.
Driven by the strong domestic consumer market, my country's passenger car market has exceeded 20 million for seven consecutive years.
Judging from the changes in passenger car sales throughout the year, due to the low base at the beginning of the year, the passenger car market showed a state of substantial growth. A decline has begun and the decline has expanded. Entering the fourth quarter, with the gradual easing of chip problems, the passenger car market has stabilized and the decline has gradually narrowed.
In December, as the chip supply problem eased compared to November, and the company's end-of-year impulse was added, passenger cars rebounded this month. The production and sales of passenger cars were 2.527 million and 2.422 million, an increase of 13.2% and 13.2% respectively. 10.5%, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% and 2.0% respectively, and the growth rate has changed from negative to positive compared with November. Compared with 2019, the production and sales of passenger vehicles increased by 15.5% and 9.3% year-on-year, an increase of 12.5 and 2.8 percentage points from November.
From the perspective of subdivided models, the output of four types of models increased in December, and the sales of sedans and SUVs increased. The production and sales of all four types of models showed growth throughout the year.
With the gradual increase in the income level of residents, my country's automobile market presents a clear trend of consumption upgrading. In December, the sales volume of high-end brand passenger vehicles reached 376,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%. In 2021, the sales of high-end brand passenger vehicles will be 3.472 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, which is 14.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of passenger vehicles, accounting for 16.2% of the total passenger vehicle sales, accounting for 1.9 percentage points higher than the previous year.
l The production and sales of commercial vehicles have declined
In 2021, the production and sales of commercial vehicles will be 4.674 million and 4.793 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% and 6.6%.
The fluctuation of the commercial vehicle market this year is mainly due to the fluctuation of demand caused by the switch of the National VI emission regulations for heavy-duty diesel vehicles. The National V products are lower than the National VI products in terms of purchase cost and use cost, so the market prefers the National V products. In addition, factors such as wait-and-see consumption brought about by the "blue card light truck" policy expectation and the cold real estate development industry have also exacerbated the downward pressure on the commercial vehicle market. From the perspective of long-term development, the policy dividends that have supported the growth of commercial vehicles in recent years have gradually weakened, and the commercial vehicle market will enter a period of adjustment in the future.
Judging from the trend of commercial vehicles throughout the year, the performance in the first half of the year was significantly better than that in the second half. Among them, in the first quarter, due to the low base in the same period, the production and sales showed a substantial increase. In the second quarter, the sales volume began to decline year-on-year, and the downward trend was more obvious in the second half of the year.
In December, the production and sales of commercial vehicles reached 380,000 and 364,000 units, an increase of 7.7% and 10.5% month-on-month, respectively; a year-on-year decrease of 25.3% and 20.1%, respectively, a decrease of 6.6 and 10.2 percentage points from November. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales of commercial vehicles fell by 23.6% and 18.2% year-on-year, and the decline was 5.6 and 0.6 percentage points higher than that in November.
From the perspective of subdivided models, in December, the production and sales of passenger cars and trucks showed a year-on-year decline. The annual production and sales of passenger cars ended the downward trend in the previous years and rebounded. The production and sales showed a year-on-year increase, while the annual production and sales of trucks showed a year-on-year decline.
Judging from the production and sales of passenger and cargo sub-models in 2021, among the trucks, heavy trucks, light trucks and mini trucks have experienced a larger reduction, among which heavy trucks have the largest reduction; among passenger cars, the growth of light passenger vehicles has driven the growth of overall passenger vehicle production and sales .
l The production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million
New energy vehicles have become the biggest bright spot in the automotive industry. Its market development has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven development, showing a good development situation of both market scale and development quality, laying a solid foundation for the high-quality development of the automotive industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan". solid foundation. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market share will reach 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than the previous year.
Judging from the trend of new energy vehicles, the development of both production and sales has been maintained throughout the year, with monthly sales exceeding 200,000 vehicles since March, more than 300,000 vehicles in August, more than 400,000 vehicles in November, and 530,000 vehicles in December. Show continued growth.
In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 518,000 and 531,000 respectively, a new record high, with year-on-year growth of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively. In December, the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market reached 19.1%, which continued to be higher than the previous month, of which the penetration rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market reached 20.6%.
From the perspective of subdivided models, the monthly production and sales of pure electric vehicles also set a new historical record. In December, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 434,000 units and 448,000 units, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 84,000 units and 82,000 units, an increase of 1.6 times and 1.2 times year-on-year respectively; fuel cells The production and sales of automobiles were 627 and 486 respectively, an increase of 1.4 times and 1.1 times year-on-year respectively.