Brief analysis of the economic operation of the auto industry in November 2021
1. Overview of the overall operation
In November, my country’s macroeconomic operation was generally stable. A series of policies and measures introduced by the State Council to strengthen energy supply guarantees and stabilize market prices continued to show results, power supply tensions have eased, raw material prices have fallen, and the manufacturing industry has shown signs of prosperity. Expansion, non-manufacturing industry generally maintained a stable recovery. The automobile industry has worked hard to overcome the impact of tight chip supply, scattered outbreaks, and adjustments to policies and regulations. The overall production and sales situation is slightly better than expected at the beginning of the month.
Judging from the situation of the month, auto production and sales continued to decline year-on-year in November. In terms of vehicle types, although passenger vehicles are still affected by insufficient chip supply and scattered outbreaks, monthly production and sales have increased month-on-month, and the operating trend is basically the same as that in October; commercial vehicles are subject to the switch of National VI emission regulations and the "blue light truck" policy Due to factors such as wait-and-see consumption and declining industry dividends brought about by the adjustment of expectations, production and sales still fell sharply year-on-year, and the operating situation was weaker than in October. Although the downward pressure on automobile production and sales is relatively high, the industry still has many bright spots. First, the market demand for new energy vehicles is still strong, and production and sales continue to hit new highs. The cumulative production has exceeded 3 million, and the sales volume is close to 3 million. The cumulative sales penetration rate from January to November has increased to 12.7%. Acceptance is getting higher and higher, and the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven; second, this month's automobile exports also continued to maintain rapid growth year-on-year; third, the share of Chinese brand passenger vehicles continued to increase year-on-year for eight consecutive months.
Looking forward to December, with the steady and positive development of the macro economy, the demand for automobile consumption will remain stable. However, there are still uncertainties on the supply side, and the problem of tight chip supply still exists. The orderly use of electricity in various places at the end of the year and scattered domestic epidemics have increased the potential risk of supply interruption in the automotive industry. Superimposed on the high base factor of the same period last year, the pressure on auto production and sales to maintain stability is still relatively high. Based on comprehensive judgment, the annual auto production and sales volume will be slightly higher than the level of the same period last year.
2. The operation of the automobile industry in 2021
l Automobile production and sales fell year-on-year
In November, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.585 million and 2.522 million respectively, of which the actual sales volume was better than the forecast at the beginning of the month. From the perspective of changes in growth rate, production and sales increased by 10.9% and 8.1% month-on-month, and down by 9.3% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively. Compared with the same period in 2019, production fell by 0.5% year-on-year, and sales increased by 2.5% year-on-year. The growth rate of production turned from positive to negative compared with October, and the growth rate of sales increased by 1 percentage point from October. The level of auto production and sales in December last year was the highest in the year, with 2.83 million units. The problem of insufficient supply of superimposed chips still exists, so the auto industry is still facing great pressure in December this year.
From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles completed 23.172 million and 23.489 million, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 4.5%, and the growth rate continued to drop by 1.9 percentage points from January to October. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales increased by 0.5% and 1.5% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rate of output dropped by 0.1 percentage point from January to October, and the growth rate of sales volume increased by 0.1 percentage point from January to October.
l The production and sales of passenger cars dropped year-on-year, while luxury cars continued to grow
In November, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 2.231 million and 2.192 million, up 12.2% and 9.2% month-on-month, and down 4.3% and 4.7% year-on-year, respectively. The rate of decrease was 0.4% and 0.3% smaller than that in October. In terms of vehicle models, the production and sales of the four types of vehicle models all declined year-on-year. Compared with 2019, passenger vehicle production and sales increased by 3% and 6.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 3.1 percentage points higher than that in October. In November, the supply of automotive chips was still tight, and the impact of the scattered domestic epidemic was superimposed. The passenger car market continued to run at a low level, and the situation was basically the same as in October.
From January to November, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 18.879 million and 19.06 million, up 6.9% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate was 1.7% lower than the average from January to October. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales decreased by 1.7% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, and the rate of decrease was 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points smaller than that from January to October, respectively.
In November, the sales volume of domestically produced luxury cars was 319,000, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate was 9.4 percentage points lower than that in October. From January to November, the sales volume of domestically produced luxury cars was 3.112 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, which was 12.4 percentage points higher than the cumulative growth rate of passenger cars.
l The production and sales of commercial vehicles dropped sharply year-on-year
In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were completed 353,000 and 333,000, respectively, an increase of 3.2% and 1.1% month-on-month; a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 30.3%, respectively, an increase of 5 and 0.6 percentage points from October. In terms of vehicle types, both trucks and passenger cars showed a decline. Compared with the same period in 2019, commercial vehicle production and sales fell by 18% and 17.6% year-on-year, and the decline was 13.7 and 8.7 percentage points larger than that in October, respectively. Affected by factors such as the switch to the National VI emission standards, the expected consumer wait-and-see caused by the "blue-label light truck" policy, the colder real estate development industry, and the gradual weakening of the previous policy dividends, the demand for commercial vehicles in the second half of the year was weaker than that in the first half of the year.
From January to November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 4.293 million and 4.429 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 5.3%, respectively. The decline was 2.8 percentage points larger than the average from January to October. In terms of the production and sales of different models, the growth rate of passenger cars has fallen, while the decline of trucks has expanded. Compared with the same period in 2019, commercial vehicle production and sales increased by 11.1% and 14.2% year-on-year, and the growth rates were down 3.7 and 3.6 percentage points from January to October, respectively.
l The production and sales of new energy vehicles exceed 400,000
In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed by 457,000 and 450,000, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 372,000 and 361,000 respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 85,000 and 89,000, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times and 1.7 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 212 and 147 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4% and 49.3% respectively. New energy production and sales continued to break new records this month. From the perspective of sub-models, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have also set new records. The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market was 17.8% in November, which continued to be higher than the previous month. The penetration rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market reached 19.5%.
From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. The market penetration rate reached 12.7%, higher than the previous 10 months. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 2.504 million and 2.466 million, an increase of 1.8 times and 1.7 times respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 517 thousand and 522,000, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were both completed at 10,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.0% and 16.0% respectively.
