Brief analysis of the economic operation of the auto industry in August 2021
1. Overview of the overall operation
Since late July, industrial enterprises have continued their stable recovery and are facing challenges. Among them, the spread of epidemics in some parts of the country has been superimposed by the impact of overseas epidemics, and the production and supply of some enterprises have been hindered. The prices of bulk commodities are generally operating at a high level, and the pressure of rising corporate costs has gradually appeared, especially in the middle and lower reaches. The profitability of small and micro enterprises is constantly being squeezed. In this context, the operating pressure of the automotive industry has increased.
From the perspective of market conditions, this month’s automobile production and sales continued to decline year-on-year, and the rate of decline was further expanded. The specific influencing factors are: Affected by the domestic epidemic and the Malaysian epidemic, the increase in supply chain risks has further increased the pressure to reduce production, and the fluctuations in production and sales have also been compared with last year. Relatively high base in the same period. It should be noted that although the shortage of chips significantly affected the company's production plan, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles still showed a slight increase compared with the data of the same period in 2019. At present, the supply of automobile products is mainly insufficient, and the terminal market demand remains stable. The commercial vehicle market was fluctuated due to the switch of the National VI emission regulations for heavy diesel vehicles on July 1. However, light passenger vehicles continued to maintain rapid growth, driving the growth of passenger vehicles; new energy vehicles continued to be a bright spot this month, and the production and sales of the month continued to set new records , And exceeded 300,000 vehicles for the first time, and the penetration rate continued to rise to nearly 11% from January to August. In addition, this month's automobile exports also continued to maintain rapid growth, and the monthly export volume reached a new high.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, my country's national economy will generally remain stable, thereby supporting the stability of automobile consumption demand; however, there will be large fluctuations on the supply side. Among them, the complex and changeable domestic and foreign situation brings many uncertainties, and the shortage of chip supply caused by the overseas epidemic The problem still exists, and the increase in market demand in the fourth quarter will also exacerbate the problem of limited supply; at the same time, fluctuations in market demand for commercial vehicles and the continued high prices of raw materials will further increase the cost pressure of enterprises and affect the operation of the industry. Taking all factors into consideration, we need to look at the development of the industry cautiously and optimistically, and preliminarily predict that the market for the whole year may be weaker than expected.
2. Operation of the automobile industry in August 2021
l Automobile production and sales continued to decline year-on-year
In August, the production and sales of automobiles were 1.725 million and 1.799 million, down 7.4% and 3.5% month-on-month, and down 18.7% and 17.8% year-on-year, respectively. The decline was 3.2 and 5.9 percentage points higher than that in July. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales fell by 13.4% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate of production and sales changed from positive to negative, and the decline was large. From the perspective of monthly sales in 2019 and 2020, the sales level in September-December was significantly higher than the previous few months, indicating that market demand will increase month-on-month, and the problem of tight chip supply is superimposed, and the future pressure of enterprise production will still be great.
From January to August, the production and sales of automobiles completed 16.166 million and 16.556 million respectively, an increase of 11.9% and 13.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate continued to drop by 5.3 and 5.6% over the period from January to July. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales increased by 1.3% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate of production and sales dropped 2.1 and 1.5 percentage points from January to July, respectively.
l Monthly production and sales of passenger vehicles have expanded year-on-year decline
In August, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 1.497 million and 1.552 million respectively. The output dropped by 3.3% month-on-month, and the sales volume increased by 0.04% month-on-month, down 11.9% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively. The decline was 1.2 percentage points and 4.7 percentage points higher than that in July. percentage point. In terms of vehicle types: Among the four types of vehicle models, only the crossover passenger car production and sales increased, and the production and sales of the other three types of vehicle models declined. Compared with 2019, passenger vehicle production and sales dropped 11.7% and 6.2% year-on-year. At present, passenger cars are showing a development trend of mismatch between supply and demand, in which market demand is relatively stable, but the supply side has reduced a certain amount of production due to chip shortages.
From January to August, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 12.891 million and 13.112 million, respectively, up 15.2% and 16.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to drop by 4.9 and 5.2 percentage points from January to July. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales fell by 2.5% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline was 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points larger than that from January to July, respectively.
l The production and sales of commercial vehicles dropped sharply year-on-year
In August, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 229,000 and 247,000, down 27.5% and 20.9% month-on-month; down 46.2% and 42.8% year-on-year, respectively, and the rate of decline continued to increase significantly by 13 percentage points and 12.6% respectively over July. In terms of vehicle types, the production and sales of trucks fell sharply year-on-year, and the production and sales of passenger cars continued to grow year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2019, commercial vehicle production and sales fell by 23.1% and 19% year-on-year, and the growth rate has turned from positive to negative compared to July. As the National VI emission regulations for heavy-duty diesel vehicles were switched on July 1 this year, the market demand has fluctuated greatly, and then it has shown a clear trend of high first and low low.
From January to August, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.275 million and 3.44 million, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and 5.5%. The growth rate continued to drop by 7 and 7.4 percentage points from January to July. In terms of different models, the growth rate of the cumulative output of trucks has turned from positive to negative, and the production and sales of other models are still showing growth. Compared with the same period in 2019, commercial vehicle production and sales increased by 20% and 23.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.2 percentage points lower than that from January to July.
l New energy vehicle production and sales continue to break new records
In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309,000 and 321,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 252,000 and 265,000 respectively, an increase of 1.9 times year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were both completed 56,000, an increase of 1.4 and 1.7 times year-on-year; the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were completed 40 The number of vehicles and 38 vehicles were down 58.8% and 68.6% respectively year-on-year. New energy production and sales continued to break new records this month. From the perspective of sub-models, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have also set new records. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in August has increased to 17.8%, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is even closer to 20%. According to this development, my country is expected to achieve the mid- and long-term planning target of 20% of the new energy vehicle market in 2025 ahead of schedule.
From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.813 million and 1.799 million, both increased by 1.9 times year-on-year, and the cumulative sales penetration rate was close to 11%. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 1.512 million and 1.492 million, an increase of 2.2 times and 2.1 times respectively year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 300,000 and 306,000, respectively, an increase of 1.1 times and 1.4 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were completed at 724 and 733, respectively, up 27.7% and 26.8% year-on-year.
