Brief analysis of the economic operation of the automobile industry in May 2021
1. Overview of the overall operation
In the first five months of this year, in the face of complex and volatile domestic and international situations, the national economy continued to recover steadily, and the production and business activities of enterprises continued to expand steadily. Production increased while maintaining stability, emerging drivers were cultivated and strengthened, and the service sector recovered steadily and improved. Against this backdrop, the auto consumption has remained stable overall.
Judging from the market situation, the production and sales this month showed decline on yearly basis. In terms of vehicle types, under the background of the rapid increase of the base in the same period last year, the growth pressure of passenger cars has increased significantly, and the production and sales have shown a small decline, but luxury cars still show growth. Compared with the same period in 2019, the growth rate of passenger car sales also slowed down from last month, reflecting that automobile consumption has basically returned to normal level after the epidemic. Under the influence of the approaching switch of China 6 standards for heavy vehicles, the production of trucks, which occupies a dominant position in commercial vehicles, has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. However, the buses in commercial vehicles are pulled by the light bus market, the production and sales have increased significantly. New energy vehicles continued to show a good momentum of development, continuing to refresh the historical record of production and sales that month. The auto exports also performed outstandingly, continuing to set a record for the month.
Looking to the future, China's economic performance is stable and strengthened, which plays a good role in supporting the stability of auto consumption. However, the global epidemic situation is still complex, the world economic recovery is very uneven, and the domestic economic recovery is not solid, which also brings some difficulties to the development of the automobile industry. In particular, the chip supply problems have intensified the impact on enterprise production month by month, the sharp rise in raw material prices has further increased the cost pressure of enterprises, and the continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate has a certain impact on exports. Therefore, we continue to maintain prudent optimism for the future development of the automobile industry.
2. Operation of the automobile industry in May 2021
l Automobile production and sales fell year-on-year
In May, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.040 million and 2.128 million, down 8.7% and 5.5% month-on-month, and down 6.8% and 3.1% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales increased by 10.3% and 11.1% year-on-year. The output growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that in April, and the sales volume growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than that in April.
From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles completed 10.626 million and 10.875 million, an increase of 36.4% and 36.6% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate continued to fall by 17 and 15.2 percentage points from January to April. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales increased by 3.6% and 5.8% respectively year-on-year, 1.5 and 1.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate from January to April.
l Passenger car production and sales declined slightly year-on-year
In May, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1.617 million and 1.646 million, down 5.7% and 3.4% month-on-month and 2.7% and 1.7% year-on-year. Compared with the previous month, the growth rate changed from positive to negative. In terms of vehicle models, SUV production and sales this month fell the fastest year-on-year, while sedan production fell, and sales were basically the same as the same period last year. With the rapid recovery of the base in the same period last year, the pressure on the growth of production and sales has increased significantly. Compared with 2019, passenger car production and sales increased by 8.2% and 5.2% year-on-year. The production growth rate was 5.2 percentage points higher than that in April, and the sales volume growth rate was 2.8 percentage points lower than that in April. The rapid expansion of production growth may be related to May 2019 when the enterprises had taken measures to reduce production in response to the early implementation of China 6 Standard for light vehicles.
From January to May, the production and sales of passenger cars were 8.285 million and 8.437 million, up 39.1% and 38.1% year-on-year. The growth rate continued to drop 16.2 and 15 percentage points from January to April. Compared with the same period in 2019, output fell by 1.4% year-on-year, and sales volume increased by 0.3% year-on-year. The decline in output continued to narrow by 2 percentage points from January to April, and the sales growth rate has turned from negative to positive.
l The production and sales of commercial vehicles dropped significantly year-on-year
In May, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 424,000 and 482,000, down 18.6% and 12.1% month-on-month, and down 19.6% and 7.4% year-on-year. In terms of vehicle types, the production and sales of trucks have significantly dropped year-on-year, and the production and sales of buses have significantly increased year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased by 18.7% and 37.1% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of production dropped by 14.2 percentage points from April, and the growth rate of sales increased by 2.1 percentage points from April.
From January to May, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 2.341 million and 2.438 million, an increase of 27.8% and 31.9% year-on-year. The growth rate was 19.2 and 15.4 percentage points lower than that from January to April. Compared with the same period in 2019, commercial vehicle production and sales increased by 26% and 30.6% year-on-year, of which the output growth rate dropped by 1.8 percentage points from January to April, and the sales volume growth rate increased by 1.5 percentage points from January to April.
l New energy vehicles continued to refresh the historical record of the month's production and sales
In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both reached 217,000, an increase of 1.5 times and 1.6 times respectively year-on-year, continuing to refresh the historical record of the month. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 181,000 and 179,000, an increase of 1.8 times and 1.7 times respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 36,000 and 39,000, an increase of 67.8% and 1.2 times respectively; the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 38 and 9 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% and 90.0% respectively.
From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 967,000 and 950,000 respectively, an increase of 2.2 times year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 818,000 and 794,000, an increase of 2.6 times and 2.5 times respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 149,000 and 156,000, an increase of 1.1 times and 1.3 times respectively; the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 188 and 207 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 47.3% and 44.1%.
